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One group, led by Gerald Meehl at NCAR, used two state-of-the-art climate models to explore what could happen if the world had held atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases steady since 2000. The results: Even if the world had slammed on the brakes five years ago, global average temperatures would rise by about 1 degree Fahrenheit by the end of the 21st century. Sea levels would rise by another 4 inches over 20th-century increases. Rising sea-levels would continue well beyond 2100, even without adding water from melting glaciers and ice sheets. The rise highlights the oceans' enormous capacity to absorb heat and its slow reaction to changes in atmospheric conditions.
The team ran each model several times with a range of "what if" concentrations, as well as observed concentrations, for comparison. Temperatures eventually level out, Dr. Meehl says in reviewing his team's results. "But sea-level increases keep ongoing. The relentless nature of sea-level rise is pretty daunting". Dr. Wigley took a slightly different approach with a simpler model. He ran simulations that capped concentrations, at 2000 levels. If concentrations are held constant, warming could exceed 1.8 degrees F. by 2400. The two researchers add that far from holding steady, concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to rise. Thus, at best, the results point to the least change people can expect, they say.
The idea that some level of global climate change from human activities is inevitable is not new. But the word has been slow to make its way into the broader debate. "Many people don't realize we are committed right now to a significant amount of global warming and sea-level rise. The longer we wait, the more climate change we are committed to in the future", Meehl says.
While the concept of climate-change commitment isn't new, these fresh results "tell us what's possible and what's realistic" and that for the immediate future, "prevention is not on the table", says Roger Pielke Jr., director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research. To Pielke and others, this means adaptation should be given a much higher priority that it's received to date. "There's a cultural bias in favor of prevention", he says. But any sound policy includes preparation as well, he adds. "We have the scientific and technological knowledge we need to improve adaptation and apply that knowledge globally".
According to the research of NCAR, if the concentrations were held steady at 2000 levels, ______.
A．the ocean's capacity to absorb heat would decline.
B．the sea-level would keep on increasing.
C．the global average temperature would decrease.
D．significant climate change would not take place.
Part A
Directions: Read the following four texts. Answer the questions below each text by choosing A, B, C or D. (40 points)
When a Shanghai ad consultant was recently asked to recommend young local designers to an international agency, he sent three candidates with years of work experience. But the company decided they weren't good enough and had to import designers from the West. It's a common problem that Chinese vocational grads simply haven't had good enough teaching. Most of the lecturers don't have any real work experience, so they can't teach useful things. When graduates do get hired, they basically have to be re-educated.
China's rapid economic expansion has exposed many frailties in its education system, especially on the vocational side. The country can't produce enough skilled workers. In part that's because it invests far more in academic than vocational programs. Funding has fallen significantly since the 1990s. Partly as a result, today only 38 percent or so of China's high-school-age students attend vocational schools, well below the official target of 50 percent. To address this deficit, last year Beijing pledged to spend almost $2 billion on 100 new vocational colleges and 1,000 high schools. And this year it started offering annual subsidies to vocational students.
But China's training is too abstract, what's urgently required are technicians who can come up with a good idea and turn it into a marketable product. Parts of the country are already adapting; in Shenzhen, local institutes offer "made to order" training for particular businesses. And some vocational colleges have introduced practical research projects.
But vocational education faces a deeper problem: its image. China's middle class is eager to forget its experience with physical labor, and few allow their children to become technical workers. Everyone thinks these are things that low-class people do. Thus China now produces record numbers of college grads—who struggle to find work because they lack the skills for manufacturing, where demand is greatest. One fix would be to re-brand vocational subjects as "professional", not "manual" skills.
At the other end of the spectrum are China's 100 million-plus rural migrant workers, many of whom have little schooling. They have never learned how to work with others, to live in the city, save money or choose the right job. Thus they find it hard to learn from their jobs or plan their careers. This results in extremely high labor turnover. Teaching and training" life skills" to complement vocational programs would help.
Yet the urgency of China's skilled-labor shortfall will force a rethink. For now, China is relying on cheap, low-skilled, labor-intensive production, but it's not sustainable in the long term, We must raise our skills level, and it's impossible for state-run colleges to do all the training. Indeed, with the demand for skilled workers growing all the time, China will need all the help it can get.
Why are Chinese vocational grads inferior to their Western counterparts？
A．Because China spends less on vocational education training.
B．Because they simply don't have enough work experience.
C．Because their lecturers are less qualified than the foreign ones.
D．Because their teachers don't want to teach any useful things.
Second, people also learn that such【C9】______of cause and effect are probabilistic(概率)in nature. That is, the effects occur more often when the causes occur than when the causes are【C10】______, but not always.【C11】______, students learn that studying hard【C12】______good grades in most instances, but not every time. Science makes these concepts of causality and probability more explicit and【C13】______techniques for dealing【C14】______them more rigorously than does causal human inquiry. In looking at ordinary human inquiry, we need to【C15】______between prediction and understanding. Often, even if we don't understand why, we are willing to act【C16】______the basis of a demonstrated predictive ability.
Whatever the primitive drives that【C17】______human beings, satisfying them depends heavily on the ability to predict future circumstances. The attempt to predict is often played in a【C18】______of knowledge and understanding. If you can understand why certain regular patterns【C19】______, you can predict better than if you simply observe those patterns. Thus, human inquiry aims【C20】______answering both" what" and "why" questions, and we pursue these goals by observing and figuring out.
【C1】
A．exhibit
B．exaggerate
C．examine
D．exceed
Once upon a time (not so very long ago, either!) industrial goods were made to last forever. If you bought a ear or a stove, it was a once-in-a-lifetime investment(投资). You paid good money for it, and you took care of it. Nowadays industry has persuaded us that products shouldn't last a long time. It's cheaper to throw them away than it is to repair them. This has led directly to the "throw-away society" which is a tremendous waste of the earth's resources.
Just think of the cars that are traded in daily, just because they are out of style. Think of the expensive packaging material that is thrown away every time a new object is bought. And we consumers have to pay for that material! Our industrial society has turned us into spoiled children. This wastefulness has got ten us into the mess (困境) we are in now. When we have no resources left, then we'll start to take care of what we have. But why can't we act before this happens？ Why can't we go back to being a society in which the prevention of waste is a virtue？
Products used to be made to last ______.
A．for at least five years
B．for ten years
C．for as long as you take good care of them
D．for your whole life
Recently I have avoided watching games, not even at a TV live coverage, still less to the match in person. That's because I know I couldn't control myself. When watching a match, I'll inevitably take sides and be emotionally involved, strongly wishing for the triumph of the side over its opponent. As I often side with the "weaker" in a match, watching it will only spell worry and misery for me.
Not long ago when I accompanied my wife to a super world tennis match my horizons broadened as regards sports competition. It seemed to me that wins and losses were relative and transient. What mattered was the ever-higher level achieved through contest. Victory was a result of all the efforts made by both sides. As one of the audience, I should applaud the energetic performance of both to the neglect of the result. Why should I regard the contest as a life-and-death struggle, the winner as survival and the loser as dead？
The basketball team was often defeated because ______.
A．the team members didn't know how to play basketball
B．the team members were students who only know how to study book knowledge
C．there were only one or two members who were qualified for basketball
D．the morale of the team was low
Palmer: Hello, Mr Tang, how are you？ It is nice to meet you again.
Tang: How are you？ Mr Palmer．It's really a pleasure to see you here again．I do hope you have had a very enjoyable trip from London.
Palmer: I must confess that the air trip is really a long one．But, you see, the air-lines are very comfortable so that one does not feel tired at all the end of the journey.
Tang: Glad you have had a pleasant trip．I have to doubt you are comfortably settled and find things at the hotel satisfactory.
Palmer: Everything is perfect, thank you．Well, now, Mr Tang, if you don't mind, I'll talk shop with you directly.
Tang: Perfectly all right with me．In fact, we'd better talk over our business first and then have a chat afterwards．You wish to take up the subject of the Arbutus, don't you ？
Palmer: That's right．You see, Mr Tang, you have probably been advised of the serious damage done to the last consignment of 60 cases of Arbutus．Upon its arrival in London on board s．s．Coma, it was found, much to our regret, that about 50% of the cases were leaking．Closer inspection by the Health Officers showed that the contents were considered unfit for human consumption.
Tang: Just a minute, if you please, Mr Palmer．Have your people in London discovered what were the exact causes of the leakage？ It was rather a singular case, for thousands of tons of this product have been exported and this seems to be the only case of having been damaged en route.
Palmer: I am sorry I have to say it was not en route．It was definitely damaged prior to loading onto the s．s．Coma．You may think it a singular case, yet the fact remains that this has made it necessary for us to file a claim on you．Here, Mr．Tang, I have brought along with me the certificate issued by the London Health Officer．It speaks for itself．As to the causes, closer inspection and examination by our cargo handling people revealed that the leakage of juice was brought about by damaged tins．They were evidently broken through careless handling while being loaded into the ship's hold in Shanghai dock.
Tang: As I have said before, the whole business is most unfortunate．We have never come across such a case of damage during loading.
Palmer: I have to remind you that our terms are C.I．F London port．While we have full confidence in your Commodities Inspection Bureau in its capacity of quality inspection, this is a case which occured after their sampling and analysis at the works．And the broken tins through careless handling and deterioration of contents en route necessarily about this state of affairs．Now, Mr Tang, you are well aware that our business has just started this branch of activities and the losses thus sustained will be a blow to this department．I am sure you will think it fair on our part when we suggest that the total value of the parcel should be reduced by 50% and that you should give us an allowance by way of credit for the amount to be set against our future purchases of canned fruits from you.
Tang: To be fair to your company, I am directed by my Shanghai Branch to settle this issue with you amicably on condition that you give us a certificate issued by your Health Department．Now that this is available, I think everything will be in order.
Palmer: I am so glad to hear of your ready agreement．Your fairness in business dealings is really unsurpassed．Shall we send you a letter confirming this？
Tang: As soon as you send us a letter confirming this conversation, we'll send you a reply immediately.
Palmer: Thanks ever so much for your co-operation, Mr Tang．Good-bye.
Tang: Good-bye Mr Palmer．Come over here when you are through with your business and we'll have a friendly chat.
A.A.out of question
B.B.in question
C.C.in the question
D.D.out of the question
Self-image is your own mind's picture of yourself. This image includes the way you look, the way you act, the way you talk and the way you think. Interestingly, our self-images are often quite different from the images others hold about us. Unfortunately, most of these images are more negative than they should be. Thus changing the way you think about yourself is the key to changing your self-image and your whole world.
The best way to defeat a passive self-image is to step back and decide to stress your successes. That is, make a list if you need to, but write down all of the great things you do every day. Don't allow doubts to occur in it.
It very well might be that you are experiencing a negative self-image because you can't move past one flaw or weakness that you see about yourself. Well, roll up your sleeves and make a change of it as your primary task. If you think you're silly because you aren't good at math, find a tutor. If you think you're weak because you can't run a mile, get to the track and practice. If you think you're dull because you don't wear the latest trends, buy a few new clothes.
The best way to get rid of a negative self-image is to realize that your image is far from objective and to actively convince yourself of your positive qualities. Changing the way you think and working on those you need to improve will go a long way towards promoting a positive self-image. When you can pat yourself on the back, you'll know you're well on your way.
You need to build a positive self-image when you______.
A．dare to challenge yourself
B．feel it hard to change yourself
C．are unconfident about yourself
D．have a high opinion of yourself
The source of the sun' s inconstancy is magnetism. Professor William Livingston has developed new theories about its magnetic nature.
"We don' t yet know what causes sun spots, "he says, "but we now think they ' re areas of high level magnetism that come up from the sun' s interior. So strong is their magnetic pull that the highly ionized gas nearby is not able to transmit energy out. "As a result these areas send out less heat and light and thus appear from Earth to be almost dark irregular surface patches.
Sun spot activity generally fluctuates in steady, 11-year cycled. Scientists have long formed the o pinion that as the size and number of sun spots increased, the overall energy sent out by the sun would de crease. Indeed, recent studies confirmed it, revealing that during peak periods of sun spot activity, the Earth experiences a small drop that can be seen clearly in received solar energy.
Could such a small drop in energy have an effect here on earth？ Perhaps some scientists think the world temperature could fall by' as much as 0.2 during periods of high solar magnetism.., enough to cause significant fluctuations in weather patterns.
According to the passage, it is believed that the sun ______ ．
A．moves in a quick but steady way year after year
B．sends out less and less heat and light with each passing year
C．radiates the same amount of light every year
D．might have a strong influence on the weather patterns
A.A task means “any activity that learners engage in to further the process of learning a language ”
B.Tasks are “communicative exercises that provide opportunities for relatively realistic language use”
C.Tasks are “always activities where the target language is used by the learner for a communicative purpose in order to achieve an outcome”
D.Thus, we see more and more emphasis on communication outcomes, andthe last definition has won “a broad consensus among researchers and educators”
