Like street comer prophets proclaiming that the end is near, scientists who study the eart

h's atmosphere have been issuing predictions of impending doom for the past few years without offering any concrete proof. So far even the experts have had to admit that no solid evidence has emerged that this is anything but a natural phenomenon. And the uncertainty has given skeptics-especially Gingrichian politicians—plenty of ammunition to argue against taking the difficult, expensive steps required to stave off a largely hypothetical calamity.

Until now, a draft report currently circulating on the Internet asserts that the global temperature rise can now be blamed, at least in part, on human activity. Statements like this have been made before by individual researchers-who have been criticized for going too far beyond the scientific consensus. But this report comes from the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a respected UN sponsored body made up of more than 1,300 leading climate experts from 40 nations. This shift in scientific consensus is based not so much on new data as on improvements in the complex computer models that climatologists use to test their theories. Unlike chemists or molecular biologists, climate experts have no way to do lab experiments on their specialty. So they simulate them on supercomputers and look at what happens when human generated gases-carbon dioxide from industry and auto exhaust, methane from agriculture, chlorofluoro carbons from leaky refrigerators and spray cans-are pumped into the models virtual atmospheres.

Until recently, the computer models weren't working very well. When the scientists tried to simulate what they believe has been happening over the past century or so, the results didn't mesh with reality; the models said the world should now he warmer than it actually is. The reason is that the computer models had been overlooking an important factor affecting global temperatures: sulfur dioxides that are produced along with CO2 when fossil fuels are burned in cars and power plants. Aerosols actually cool the planet by blocking sunlight and mask the effects of global warming. Once the scientists factored in aerosols, their models began looking more like the real world. The improved performance of the simulations was demonstrated in 1991, when they successfully predicted temperature changes in the aftermath of the massive Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines. A number of studies since have added to the scientists confidence that they finally know what they are talking about-and can predict what may happen if greenhouse gases continue to be pumped into the atmosphere unchecked.

Gingrichian politicians reluctant to address the problem because______.

A．they think it is anything but a natural phenomenon

B．the efforts may turn to be too difficult and expensive

C．they think the predicted disaster is only hypothetical

D．some scientists have gone too far beyond the scientific consensus